A junior developer is assigned a small feature: add a form, store the response and handle an error when the server goes down. A few years ago, the task would have taught them how a project is organised, where the API lives and how to untangle a bug. Today, an AI agent can produce a working first draft within minutes.
That is a productivity gain. But it raises an awkward question: if we automate the tasks through which beginners develop judgement, where will the next generation of experienced engineers come from?
The question is bigger than “Will AI replace programmers?”
Writing code is not the same as engineering a reliable product. A repair-management system might look convincing in a demonstration yet fail when a customer submits the same payment twice, a mobile connection drops halfway through a transaction, or two employees update one job order simultaneously.
The more immediate risk is that businesses may cut back on the very assignments that once made junior developers employable. In research updated in August 2026, the Stanford Digital Economy Lab describes a widening employment gap between younger workers in occupations exposed to AI and those in less-exposed jobs. The paper reports that employment in highly exposed jobs among young workers was around 19% below the path implied by growth in less-exposed occupations. .